Tuesday, May 9, 2017

The $800 Billion Gorilla

Apple today became the first company to ever have a market capitalization of $800 billion - briefly. Apple stock crossed the $800 billion mark early in the afternoon, but then gave back some of its value before closing, ending the day at a market cap of $797.8 billion.

It's still by far the most valuable company in the world. The rest of the top five, in order of market cap:
  • Alphabet $652 billion
  • Microsoft $530 billion
  • Amazon.com $451 billion
  • Berkshire Hathaway $406 billion

Monday, May 8, 2017

Older Debt

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released numbers recently showing that the share of all household debt held by people aged 60 and older has almost doubled, from 12.6 percent in 2003, to 22.5 percent in 2016. The total debt is now nearly $3 trillion.

Mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and even student loan balances have all grown significantly for older Americans -- and only older Americans. Borrowers under 60 reduced their mortgages and credit card balances relative to the peak during the 2008 financial crisis.

Seniors are holding $67 billion in student loans, and the number of seniors holding such loans has quadrupled since 2005. That makes older folks the fastest-growing segment of the student loan borrower population, according to a recent report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Friday, May 5, 2017

April's Jobs Report

The economy bounced back strong in April, adding 211,000 jobs after a disappointing March. The headline unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4 percent, the lowest it's been since prior to the recession.

The March figure, already low at 98,000, was revised down to 79,000 jobs added on Friday. But all told, the economy has added an average 185,000 jobs a month in 2017, roughly matching last year’s pace.

The broader measure of unemployment known as the “U-6” rate fell to 8.6 percent, the lowest it's been since November 2007. This rate takes into account not only unemployed workers, but also Americans who are too discouraged to look for work and part-timers who would prefer full-time work.

Thursday, May 4, 2017

The Fed Stands Pat

No surprises on interest rates this month: The Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it held its benchmark interest rate steady after its latest policy meeting, as had widely been expected. The Fed kept the benchmark federal funds rate at a range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent, following the 0.25 percent increase in March.

The Fed acknowledged that the overall economy and consumer spending both slowed down during the first quarter. But they view it as temporary, and think the economy in general is strong enough to withstand further hikes.

In other words, the Fed expects to continue raising interest rates – and the next hike may be in June. The majority of the Fed's 17 leaders predict two or more rate hikes for the rest of the year. That's a faster pace compared to the last two years, when the Fed only raised rates once a year.

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Putting the Brakes on Car Sales

Sales at all six of the biggest automakers in the U.S. dropped again in April, with Ford and Honda Motor posting the steepest declines -- about 7 percent each. Five of the six biggest companies — General Motors, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Honda and Nissan — all reported sales falling faster than analysts had forecast. Only Toyota posted monthly sales that were better than expected, but they too were down.

U.S. car sales are expected to fall this year after rising to a record of 17.55 million in 2016, up from 17.5 million in 2015. The annualized pace of U.S. auto sales slowed to 16.9 million in April. A year ago, the rate was 17.4 million.

Industrywide deliveries are down 2.4 percent so far this year compared to the same period last year. The four-month slump reinforces the sense among many that this year will hold the U.S. auto market’s first annual contraction since 2009, the year GM and Chrysler reorganized in bankruptcy court.

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Sector Scoreboard

With a third of 2017 in the books, the S&P 500 is up 7 percent on the year, and those gains are pretty broad-based. Nine of the eleven sectors in the index have advanced in 2017 - but the two that have dropped have both fallen quite a bit.

The full scoreboard:
  • Information Technology, up 15 percent
  • Consumer Discretionary, up 11 percent   
  • Health Care, up 10 percent    
  • Consumer Staples, up 7 percent    
  • Materials, up  7 percent   
  • Utilities, up 7 percent    
  • Industrials, up 6 percent   
  • Real Estate, up 4 percent  
  • Financials, up 2 percent
  • Telecommunications Services,  down 7 percent    
  • Energy, down 9 percent  

Monday, May 1, 2017

A Cool Thousand

Earnings season has driven two well-known stocks close to the thousand-dollar-per-share-price level. Amazon.com reached its all-time high of $950 on Friday, while Google parent Alphabet rose as much as 5 percent, to a fresh intraday peak of $936.

Currently, there are only four companies in the S&P 500 at $1000 or more a share, led by Berkshire Hathaway class A shares, which are currently at nearly $250,000 apiece. The others in the $1,000 club include Seaboard (at $4,234), NVR (at $2,111), and Priceline Group (at $1,846).

Alphabet’s total market value of $607 billion is second only to Apple among S&P 500 companies. And Amazon comes in fourth, with a market capitalization of nearly $439 billion.