U.S. holiday spending jumped 5.5 percent, spurred by stronger employment, rising consumer confidence and expectations of higher wages and bonuses after the recent tax bill, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation. That's the biggest one-year gain for this figure since 2005.
Sales in November and December rose to $691.9 billion, compared with $655.8 billion the previous year, excluding sales at restaurants, automobile dealers and gasoline stations. This is huge, because holiday sales can account for up to 40 percent of annual sales for some stores.
With $6.6 billion spent, Cyber Monday — the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday — was the largest U.S. shopping day ever. Online transactions from the top 100 U.S. web retailers were 14.7 percent higher than last year's total.
Thursday, January 18, 2018
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
How Hot Is 2018?
Yesterday was the tenth trading day of 2018, and market returns over that period have been the best in 15 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.3 percent over that period, while the S&P 500 is up 3.9 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index has gained 4.6 percent.
According to the WSJ Market Data Group, that represents the best 10-day start to a year for both the Dow and the S&P since 2003, when the Dow kicked off the year by rising 4.57 percent and the S&P rose 4.36 percent. For the Nasdaq, 2018 marks the best 10-day start since 2012, when it rose 4.72 percent.
Of the 10 trading days in 2018 thus far, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen in eight of them, while the Dow has gained in seven of the 10 days. The Dow topped 26,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday, though it subsequently retreated from that level and ended in negative territory for the day.
According to the WSJ Market Data Group, that represents the best 10-day start to a year for both the Dow and the S&P since 2003, when the Dow kicked off the year by rising 4.57 percent and the S&P rose 4.36 percent. For the Nasdaq, 2018 marks the best 10-day start since 2012, when it rose 4.72 percent.
Of the 10 trading days in 2018 thus far, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen in eight of them, while the Dow has gained in seven of the 10 days. The Dow topped 26,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday, though it subsequently retreated from that level and ended in negative territory for the day.
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
The Embattled IRS
Concerned about the new tax changes? Good luck getting your tax questions answered by the IRS this tax season or the next one. After the massive new tax law passed in December, the IRS has admitted it's not ready for it.
The IRS lacks the funding to “provide acceptable levels of taxpayer service,” according to the annual report from the agency’s National Taxpayer Advocate. The agency estimates it will answer only six out of 10 taxpayer calls this coming tax filing season and less than 40 percent of calls with a “live assistor” during the full 2018 fiscal year, which runs through September 30, 2018.
After the April tax filing deadline, the IRS won't be answering any tax law questions by phone or at its taxpayer assistance centers. Since fiscal 2009, the agency's employee training budgets have been cut nearly 75 percent.
The IRS lacks the funding to “provide acceptable levels of taxpayer service,” according to the annual report from the agency’s National Taxpayer Advocate. The agency estimates it will answer only six out of 10 taxpayer calls this coming tax filing season and less than 40 percent of calls with a “live assistor” during the full 2018 fiscal year, which runs through September 30, 2018.
After the April tax filing deadline, the IRS won't be answering any tax law questions by phone or at its taxpayer assistance centers. Since fiscal 2009, the agency's employee training budgets have been cut nearly 75 percent.
Monday, January 15, 2018
The Full Employment Question
Are we at full employment? The vast majority of economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal think we're just about there. Asked if the U.S. economy has reached full employment, 42 percent said yes and an additional 48 percent said no, but that it’s close.
“Full employment” doesn’t necessarily mean every American who wants a job has one. Economists use the term to describe the point where unemployment can’t go any lower without generating price and wage pressures.
The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in December, remaining at its lowest level in 17 years. It has come down from a peak of 10 percent in the immediate aftermath of the 2007-09 recession.
“Full employment” doesn’t necessarily mean every American who wants a job has one. Economists use the term to describe the point where unemployment can’t go any lower without generating price and wage pressures.
The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in December, remaining at its lowest level in 17 years. It has come down from a peak of 10 percent in the immediate aftermath of the 2007-09 recession.
Friday, January 12, 2018
The Dow's Midpoint Record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average knocked out yet another record yesterday in its rise to new heights. After knocking out a round-number milestone at 25,000, the index then posted its fasted run to a midpoint milestone. It reached 25,500 in just seven trading sessions.
The previous record for such a midpoint advance was the move to 24,500, hit after December 12 after a blistering eight sessions for the Dow. By contrast, the Dow took 17,476 days to reach its first midpoint, when it went from zero to 500, which it finally hit on March 12, 1956.
Perhaps a more fair comparison would be when the Dow took 1,423 trading sessions to go from 14,000 to 14,500. That took place after the Dow crashed at the outset of the recession; it hit 14,000 in July 2007, but didn't reach 14,500 until March of 2013.
The previous record for such a midpoint advance was the move to 24,500, hit after December 12 after a blistering eight sessions for the Dow. By contrast, the Dow took 17,476 days to reach its first midpoint, when it went from zero to 500, which it finally hit on March 12, 1956.
Perhaps a more fair comparison would be when the Dow took 1,423 trading sessions to go from 14,000 to 14,500. That took place after the Dow crashed at the outset of the recession; it hit 14,000 in July 2007, but didn't reach 14,500 until March of 2013.
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Money Woes and Marriage
Do you and your spouse fight about money? Nearly half of Americans (48 percent) who are married or living with a partner say they argue with the person over money, according to a survey of more than 1,000 people by The Cashlorette.
Most of those fights are about spending habits, with 60 percent saying that one person spends too much or the other is too cheap. The scary part: At least two studies show that this could lead to divorce. Data released Wednesday by financial firm TD Ameritrade found that 41 percent of divorced Gen Xers and 29 percent of Boomers say they ended their marriage due to disagreements about money.
The worst time to be doing this is early on in your relationship, watch out: That may be the No. 1 predictor of whether or not you’ll end up divorced, according to a study of more than 4,500 couples published in the journal Family Relationships.
Most of those fights are about spending habits, with 60 percent saying that one person spends too much or the other is too cheap. The scary part: At least two studies show that this could lead to divorce. Data released Wednesday by financial firm TD Ameritrade found that 41 percent of divorced Gen Xers and 29 percent of Boomers say they ended their marriage due to disagreements about money.
The worst time to be doing this is early on in your relationship, watch out: That may be the No. 1 predictor of whether or not you’ll end up divorced, according to a study of more than 4,500 couples published in the journal Family Relationships.
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
The Worries of Gen X
Gen X investors are worried about retirement but aren't well-equipped to address their plans, according to a study released Monday by Jefferson National. The study showed that 52 percent of Gen X investors do not have an advisor, and are least likely to seek advice even though they are in their prime earning years, between the ages of 37 to 52.
Of particular note for advisors was the survey finding that 30 percent of Gen Xers said their number one reason for having an advisor was concern about saving enough for retirement. Their second main reason — feeling confident in their financial future — trailed by 10 percentage points.
In contrast, 36 percent each of baby boomers and older investors and 27 percent of millennials cited feeling confident in their financial future as the number one reason for seeking financial advice. Only 15 percent of millennials and 12 percent of boomers said retirement saving was their chief reason.
Of particular note for advisors was the survey finding that 30 percent of Gen Xers said their number one reason for having an advisor was concern about saving enough for retirement. Their second main reason — feeling confident in their financial future — trailed by 10 percentage points.
In contrast, 36 percent each of baby boomers and older investors and 27 percent of millennials cited feeling confident in their financial future as the number one reason for seeking financial advice. Only 15 percent of millennials and 12 percent of boomers said retirement saving was their chief reason.
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