Recession Worries Are Growing

Reading the tea leaves, it looks like corporate America is getting more worried about a recession. Analysis of S&P 500 2018 earnings transcripts from the fourth quarter shows fading exuberance among corporate executives, according to Gartner, Inc. “Mentions of the words ‘downturn’ and ‘slowdown’ were four times more likely to appear in earnings call in 4Q18,” they reported.

The most commonly cited economic concern was the slowing Chinese economy. This theme emerged strongly in the last quarter of 2018 and has picked up momentum in 2019 earnings calls. The companies most exposed to China were more likely to report demand weakness in 2018, or predict that it would be occurring in 2019.

But it should be noted that this is still a minority among American companies. Most executives remained optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2019. Sentiment was particularly positive in the technology and communications sectors.

The Most Expensive Cities in the World

It may feel like it costs a lot of money to live around here, especially up near New York City, but according to the latest figures from the Economist Intelligence Unit, the most expensive places in the world are mostly overseas. New York City is No. 8, and the Los Angeles was the only other American city to crack the list at No. 10.

Here are the Economist's Top Ten most expensive cities to live in:

1. Singapore
2. Zurich
3. Hong Kong
4. Paris
5. Geneva
6. Osaka
7. Seoul
8. New York
9. Copenhagen
10. Los Angeles
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A Million Job Openings

Here's a milestone for the U.S. economy: There are now about 1 million more open jobs than unemployed workers. U.S. employers posted nearly 7.6 million open jobs in January, near a record high set in November, the Labor Department said Friday

The report, known as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, showed that layoffs declined, a reassuring sign that employers weren't spooked by the government shutdown, which ended January 25. Nearly 3.5 million people quit their jobs in January, up 2.9 percent from the previous month.

Quits are a sign of a healthy economy, because people typically leave a job for another, usually higher-paying, one. Openings began to outpace the unemployed last spring, for the first time in the 18 years the data has been tracked.

A Blip for Housing

Sales of new U.S. homes slumped 6.9 percent in January, But rather than seeing this as a sign of a slowing market, many experts attributed the drop to the fact that buyers were more tentative during the government shutdown.

The Commerce Department says that new homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in January, down from 652,000 in December. Purchases of homes yet to be constructed to fell a whopping 26.8 percent in January, accounting for all of the month's decline.

New-home sales in January ran slightly below the totals for the entirety of both 2018 and 2017. The median sales price of a new home in January fell 3.8 percent, to a nationwide average of $317,200.

Oil Prices at a High for the Year

Oil futures settled at their highest level since November yesterday, as weekly data revealed a surprise decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and a bigger-than-expected drop in gasoline inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4 percent to end at $58.26 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration reported yesterday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 3.9 million barrels for the week ended March 8, well below expectations for a climb of 3.3 million barrels expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. The EIA also reported that total domestic crude production inched down 100,000 barrels to 12 million barrels a day.

The EIA also lifted its 2019 forecasts for U.S. and global benchmark oil prices. That report, combined with U.S. sanctions on the oil industries in Iran and Venezuela, means we should probably expect oil prices to rise even further.

Inflation Returns, Barely

U.S. consumer prices rose for the first time in four months in February, but very slightly so: It was the smallest annual gain in nearly two and a half years. The Labor Department said on Tuesday its Consumer Price Index increased by just 0.2 percent, driven by gains in the costs of food, gasoline and rents.

In the 12 months through February, the CPI rose just 1.5 percent, the smallest gain since September 2016. The CPI had increased 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in January.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core CPI - the measure the Fed keeps an eye on - edged up 0.1 percent, the smallest increase since August 2018. Core CPI had increased by 0.2 percent for five straight months. In the 12 months through February, core CPI rose 2.1 percent.

Retail Sales Bounce Back Strong

U.S. retail sales came back strong in January, which is good news for the economy, indicating consumers may still be able to help support economic growth after a dismal end to 2018. But the decline in December was even worse than initially thought, according to a report out yesterday from the Commerce Department.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rebounded 1.1 percent in January.  These so-called core retail sales are considered to correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

But the retail data for December was revised down to show sales dropping 1.6 percent instead of falling 1.2 percent, as previously reported. The drop in December was the biggest since September 2009, when the economy was just emerging from recession.