Friday, August 31, 2018

America's Old Cars

How old is your car? If it follows the trends of most American drivers, it's probably pretty old. According to a study from the Energy Department, the average age of vehicles owned by households increased from 9.3 years in 2009 to 10.5 years in 2017.

Cars may just be living longer. In 2009, about 7 percent of all vehicles were five years old, and by 2017, this had fallen to just 5.8 percent of all vehicles. But in 2017, there were more vehicles on the road that were 10 years and older than in 2009.

This is up sharply from recent decades. The average car's age rose from just 6.9 years in 1980 to 7.9 years in 1985. For a while, the average age hovered just below 8 years, and as recently as 1992, it was just 8.1 years. But it's risen pretty consistently since then.

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Stocks and Hurricanes

We're now heading into the thick of hurricane season, and various sectors of the market will be positively or negatively affected by the amount of severe weather we experience. But some of these effects are not as obvious as others.

Some of the market segments that react positively to preparation and recovery efforts include home-improvement retailers like Home Depot and Lowe’s, which typically see a boost in sales post-storm as damaged property is repaired. Grocery retailers often see a prestorm surge in sales as consumers stock up on necessities, and hotel companies benefit if people are forced into temporary lodging.

But the industry with the largest negative impact is branded apparel and footwear stocks, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley. PVH Corp., the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, scored the highest possible “hurricane exposure score” in Morgan Stanley’s analysis, alongside Tiffany & Co. Dunkin’ Brands Group is also among the companies with high hurricane exposure: In the third quarter of 2017, there was a 120 basis-point drag on the doughnut company’s same-store sales because of hurricanes.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Housing Hits the Brakes

There are a couple signs out there that the housing market is softening. First off, sales of previously-owned homes, which make up the vast majority of housing market sales, declined for the fourth month in a row in July. They've touched their lowest point in over two years, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Another sign of a slowdown: Although prices are not declining, price growth is decelerating. The national index’s 6.2 percent annual gain was down from 6.4 percent in the three-month period ending in May. The 20-city’s annual gain was also down two ticks, from 6.5 percent.

In addition, the number of new homes available for sale hit its highest level since 2009. At that month’s pace of sales, it would take 5.9 months to exhaust available inventory. Six months has historically been considered a marker of a market evenly balanced between supply and demand.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Young People's Money Woes

Young adults are living on the edge with their finances, according to a new study from the University of Illinois. About a third of young adults (those between 18 and 24 years old) were considered “financially precarious,” meaning they had few money management skills and little income stability, according to the study.

Another 36 percent of participants were considered financially “at risk” because they had an unexpected drop in income within the year and had no savings to support themselves - and didn’t have enough to pay for a $2,000 emergency. Approximately 10 percent also said they struggled with money management, such as budgeting and credit-card usage, and would put their health in jeopardy by avoiding doctor visits and prescriptions because of costs.

Only 22 percent were deemed financially stable, meaning they were saving at a mainstream bank and steered clear of financial services that charge higher interest and fees, such as payday lenders. Members of this group were more likely to be white males, employed and college-educated.

Monday, August 27, 2018

The Worst Place to Retire

We talk a lot here about how to get the best out of your retirement years, but what's the worst place to retire? According to a new survey from WalletHub, it's right here in New Jersey. Newark rates as exorbitantly expensive while also having little in the way of activities for retirees. On the bright side, the health care options are good.

Jersey City also finished high up on the list, at No. 8. Its primary advantage over Newark appears to be that there's more to do there. The top ten unfavorable cities for retirees:

  1. Newark
  2. Bridgeport, Conn.
  3. Warwick, R.I.
  4. Baltimore
  5. Stockton, Calif.
  6. Providence, R.I.
  7. Bakersfield, Calif.
  8. Jersey City
  9. Modesto, Calif.
  10. Fresno, Calif.

Friday, August 24, 2018

The Cost of the Crisis

What did the economic meltdown of 2007-2009 cost us? A new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco points out that not only is the economy “significantly smaller than it should be based on its pre-crisis growth trend,” but says that Americans lost $70,000 apiece in present-value lifetime income thanks to the financial crisis.

The letter says that “the size of the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP adjusted for inflation, is well below the level implied by the growth rates that prevailed before the financial crisis and Great Recession a decade ago.” Actual U.S. GDP is running about 12 percentage points below where it would have been had the crisis not occurred.

We're not the only ones, though. The report said that the U.K. and European economies are also trailing where they would have been, had the financial crisis and Great Recession not intervened.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

The Record Bull

Welcome to the longest bull market in history. Since March 9, 2009, which marked the low of the financial crisis and which many consider the birth date of the current bull market, the S&P 500 index has advanced 320 percent.

This bull now has 113 months under its belt. The previous longest was set during the 1990s. Then, the S&P 500 index bottomed out on October 11, 1990, and finally peaked nearly ten years later on March 24, 2000.

One advantage for that bull: With the dot-com fueled runup in the late 1990s, that market returned an annual average of 19.0 percent per year. The current buildup, by contrast, has returned a slightly more modest average of 16.5 percent per year.