The retail sales for October are to be released this morning, and are expected to be a key predictor for the recovery. September's figures dropped by 1.5 percent, but that's a bit misleading, since it includes auto sales, which spiked over the summer with the Cash for Clunkers program. Excluding car sales, retail sales were up 0.5 percent in September, after a 1.0 percent jump in August.
October is an important month to watch as it comes just before the holiday sales period, which gets under way in earnest in November. While September was up from August, the trend was not good; we'll let you know what this morning's figures say about our future.
UPDATE: The October retail figures came out surprisingly good: up 1.4 percent for the month. Economists had forecast the number would be more like 0.9 percent.
But as we've seen so often in this recovery, the signals were mixed. While October struck a positive note, the government's economists revised the September numbers; retail sales had been reported as dropping 1.5 percent, as we noted above, but now the Commerce Department has pegged that September figure at a loss of 2.3 percent. One step up, and one step back.
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