Weather Report

We mentioned yesterday that the Fed's Beige Book reported that retail conditions in both the New York and Philadelphia regions - which together cover New Jersey as well - suffered from the snowstorms we endured last month. Nevertheless, another report out now says that retail sales nationwide rose significantly in the month. Overall, sales were up by the largest amount since November 2007, before the recession began.

Of course, that doesn't account for the horrible spate of winter weather the East Coast endured (and to be fair, the weather was normal in most of the country). These things do tend to be seasonally adjusted - housing sales are expected to be slow in December but pick up once school lets out in the spring, for example - but they can't really be weather adjusted. If the people filing the Beige Book are to be believed, and retail sales in the Northeast really were hampered by the snowstorms, then February's strong sales numbers are even better than they appear.

February's jobs report is due out today, and a Bloomberg survey of economists expects the number to come in around 50,000 jobs lost, following 20,000 jobs lost in January. The severe weather may have played havoc with the employment situation a bit, though we have no way to gauge its effect. It may be hard to get a handle on what the "true" changes are for unemployment for another month or so.