Monday, August 2, 2010

Second Quarter GDP

Friday's report on the nation's second quarter GDP was disappointing: The growth figure came in at 2.4 percent, slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.5 percent. The good news was that the first-quarter figure was revised upward to a solid 3.7 percent, but that also meant that GDP declined by 35 percent in the second quarter from the first.

So were there any positive aspects to Friday's report? There are a couple:

* Much of the previous quarters' growth had been fueled by businesses rebuilding their inventories, which has largely dropped off by now. This was the first quarter in a while where we haven't had that extra boost. So in that sense, Obama Administration economic advisor Christina Romer contends, business growth has been roughly keeping pace.

* Business investment has continued to grow. Investment in equipment and software has grown by at least 20 percent for two straight quarters now.

* The savings rate is at a lofty 6.2 percent, above earlier estimates. So as soon as people start to feel comfortable spending again, they will have a decent amount of money to spend.

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