In keeping with the one-step-up, one-step-back nature of this economy, we had two contradictory economic figures released yesterday. The National Association of Home Builders found that confidence among homebuilders was at its highest level in October than it had been since early summer. The confidence level also exceeded the expectation of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That measure bottomed out in January of 2009, but it may finally be headed for positive territory.
So that's the good news. On the other side, overall production in the U.S. fell by 0.2 percent in September, which also came as a surprise to economists. That's a drop in the output of all American factories, utilities and mines. Now, 0.2 percent is a very small number, but still, it should be moving in the opposite direction.
The differences might be explained by the anticipation of the Fed's moves, in which they're expected to purchase a significant amount of Treasury bonds in early November. It could be that that's what causing the backwards-looking numbers to be more sluggish than the forward-looking ones.
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