The American Bankers Association gathered its economists together last week to talk about where the American economy is headed. The economists' figure for where 2011 GDP growth was 3.3 percent, which isn't far out of line from the other estimates we've seen. But the ABA group also forecast the number of private-sector jobs the economy would add in 2011, and came up with a figure of 2.1 million.
Now, the private sector added only 1 million jobs in 2010, so the ABA economists are expecting more than twice as many to be created this year as last. So that's the good news. The bad news is that they also estimated that the unemployment rate would still be at a lofty 9.4 percent by the end of 2011. We appear to have reached the point where even healthy economic growth will not significantly budge the unemployment rate; it's going to take something greater than that.
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