Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Dueling Indicators

There was a whole set of economic indicators released to the public yesterday by various government agencies, and the financial press lined up in different corners, deciding whether the news was good or bad. On the positive side, the Financial Times ran a story headlined "Economic Data Pierce US Gloom": The good news was that the home price index rose 0.9 percent in May, while consumer confidence rose in July, after dropping for four straight months.

At the very same time, the Wall Street Journal was featuring a piece headlined "Cracks Visible in U.S. Consumer Facade." That article points out that personal income growth dropped from 5.1 percent in June 2011 to 3.5 percent in June of this year, and that the Commerce Department issued revisions that lowered the level of American income from 2009 to 2011.

Ordinarily, this wouldn't be too big of a deal; we often see conflicting reports on the state of the economy, and it's not uncommon for indicators to contradict one another. But with the Fed meeting right now to decide what further action it wants to take regarding the economy, which indicators it decides to listen to becomes of paramount importance.

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