Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

"Boring" is a pretty underrated virtue for a stock market. What we've seen in the past couple of months from the Dow Jones industrial average may have been pretty dull, but it's also been pretty good for investors. According to information compiled by the Bespoke Investment Group, yesterday marked the 63rd trading day since the Dow has seen a daily decline of greater than 1 percent.

That's a nice little sustained run, dating back to June 25, or three full months of calendar time. We've only had 16 such quarters in which the Dow has avoided a 1 percent daily loss since 1900, according to data from Sundial Capital Research.

And the good news is, Sundial also found that such consistent performance tended to lead to more good news. After each of those quarters without a single significant daily drop, the Dow showed positive returns for the ensuing six months, with an average gain of 6 percent.

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