It's getting to be that season when financial institutions issue predictions for the coming year. Most of these prognostications fall right in line with a typical good year for the markets, such as:
* Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 will end 2013 at 1575, or a 12.5 percent increase from where we are now.
* Merrill Lynch is predicting the S&P will finish 2013 at 1600, about a 14 percent increase.
* Citigroup puts the S&P at 1615 for year-end 2013, a rise of about 15 percent.
* One notable negative: Wells Fargo predicts that the S&P will drop about 2 percent during 2013, ending the year at around 1390.
Are any of these predictions worth taking seriously? Probably not. The Web site MarketWatch notes that Bloomberg asked seven leading money managers for predictions heading into 2008, and all seven forecast that the S&P would rise by at least 13 percent. It ended up dropping by 38 percent.
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