You probably remember
that the Commerce Department’s estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2012 came in at a disappointing negative 0.1 percent. That was just the first
estimate, and we’re starting to see why these things get revised over time. The
trade deficit for December was reported last week, and it was so unexpectedly
small that it will in all likelihood push the next estimate of GDP into
positive territory.
For the month of
December, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed from $45.5 billion to $38.5 billion,
meaning the gap between the amount of our imports and the amount of our
exports fell by $7 billion. The biggest factor was that petroleum imports fell
to their lowest level in more than a decade.
Exports add money to our
economy, of course, while buying imported goods pushes dollars out of the country. When
the next revision of fourth quarter GDP is released on February 28, don’t be
surprised if it’s good news.
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