Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Sell in May?

Today is the last day of April, which makes it the perfect time to bring up the old investing adage "Sell in May, and then go away." The idea is that stock prices tend to go on a bit of a summer swoon, so investors would be wise to be out of the market during that time, and return to stocks in October or November.

It turns out there is some wisdom to the old saying. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has increased in value by an average of just 0.1 percent in May. It's flat in June, up an average of 0.9 percent in July, flat again in August, then down by an average of 0.5 percent in September. Prices then start to come back in October, rising by an average of 0.7 percent.

"Sell in May" is certainly an overstatement, though. Although stock prices are indeed historically unimpressive over the summer, they still rise by an average of 0.2 percent over those five summer months. Although those returns aren't exactly robust, it's still best to remain in the market.

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