Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Are the Baby Boomers Slowing America's GDP?

There has been much discussion lately about how the U.S. economy has been growing at subpar rates - the 2.5 percent for the second quarter is about as good as it gets lately. But many economists think that 3 percent ought to be the historic norm for the American economy.

A new paper out from a firm called Research Affiliates is disputing that notion. They propose that the America's postwar growth was fueled by demographics, primarily the development of the Baby Boom generation. "The implications are clear: Real GDP growth of 3 percent was the 'old abnormal'; it is not, and never was, "normal," the authors write.

Now that the Baby Boomers are aging, they're making much less of a contribution to the economy. "The average contribution to GDP growth becomes negative between 55 and 60," the authors argue. That means what we're seeing now may be totally normal. The entire paper can be found here.

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