Where are the markets headed in 2014? At this time of year, there is no shortage of expert predictions to be found. But those experts don't necessarily know any more than the random investor does.
The market research firm Birinyi Associates recently looked back at the 2013 forecasts of eleven top Wall Street firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The consensus estimate of those firms was that the S&P 500 would increase by 8.2 percent in 2013. In the end, the index rose by nearly 30 percent.
No one saw that coming. The most accurate of the eleven forecasters was Citigroup, which thought the S&P would finish 2013 at 1615, for a rise of of about 10 percent. In reality, the S&P blew past 1615 halfway through the year, on July 1st.
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