Storms Clouds Over the First Quarter

The first fiscal quarter of 2015 ends next week, and many economists have begun filing their estimates of how the U.S. GDP has looked over the past three months. The news has not been very good: Most forecasts have been revised downward in recent weeks. Some examples:

• JP Morgan Chase has lowered its first quarter GDP estimate from 2.0 percent to 1.5 percent, citing reduced spending by oil companies
• Morgan Stanley lowered its estimate from 1.2 percent to 0.9 percent, citing lightened inventories and lower exports
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts a minuscule 0.2 percent growth rate, down from an earlier forecast of 0.3 percent

At least no one seems to think it will be nearly as bad as the first quarter of 2014, when GDP contracted by 2.1 percent.