Friday, July 3, 2015

First Half Scorecard: The Dow

The other day we mentioned that the S&P 500 was virtually flat in the first half of 2015, rising just 0.2 percent. But the record for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was even worse. The Dow fell 1.4 percent through the first six months of 2015.

That's the first losing first half for the Dow since 2010. But that year, when the index lost 6.3 percent in that first half, it came back to gain 18 percent in the second half and finished the year up 11 percent overall.

That's unusual, though not unheard of. In the Dow's 117-year history, it has lost ground in the first half in 45 years (38 percent of the time). Of those 45 years, the index has climbed into positive territory by the end of the year only 31 percent of the time.

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