The National Association of Business Economists is the latest group, joining the Federal Reserve and the Business Roundtable, in downgrading its outlook for U.S. growth this year and next. The 55 business economists who contribute to the NABE outlook survey are now forecasting GDP growth of 2.4 percent this year, down from 2.7 percent previously, and 2 percent growth next year.
Three-quarters of respondents see more downside risks, compared with just 6 percent who see more upside, and a majority blame trade policy and slower global growth for the downside tilt. Nevertheless, NABE economists give low odds for a recession this year — around 20 percent — and just 35 percent odds for a recession in 2020.
The NABE also sees lower inflation on the horizon. They now forecast the Consumer Price Index to be at 2.1 percent throughout 2019, down from the 2.4 percent they had forecast previously.
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