Wednesday, May 30, 2012

What's Hurting Consumer Confidence?

The May consumer confidence reading came in at a disappointing level, falling the furthest for a single month since October 2011. Economists had expected the number - which had been pretty solid so far in 2012 - to rise in May. What's interesting about the current reading is that consumers seem most worried about their job prospects. The number claiming that jobs are hard to get increased from 38 to 41 percent, and those who anticipate that there will be fewer jobs in the months ahead increased from 18 to 21 percent.

This is probably - at least in part - an artifact of April's disappointing employment report, when it was reported that the economy had added just 115,000 jobs in that month. The jobs report for May comes out this Friday, and has a chance to turn a lot of people's minds around.

Already, it's been forecast to come in at around 150,000, which would be higher than April, although not especially strong. It will also be important to see if the April number has been revised upward, which has been a regular trend over the past six months or so. We'll be keeping an eye on that.

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