Wednesday, July 22, 2009

The Apple Numbers

To follow up on yesterday's post, Apple did indeed release surprisingly good quarterly figures today, and the stock did indeed take a leap upward. But that's because the profit numbers beat analysts' estimates, not the company's own depressed estimates.

Apple's net profits were up 15 percent, to $1.35 a share, up from $1.19 a share in the same quarter a year ago. The consensus of analysts was that Apple would record profits of around $1.16 a share. By beating that number, Apple saw its stock price climb by 4.5 percent yesterday.

Maybe more significantly, Apple benefited by beating its whisper number, which was in the low $1.20s per share. The whisper number is an analyst's estimate that is generally more recent than what appeared in the official research report, more confidential, and often reserved for the use of the analyst's more well-heeled clients. Not surprisingly, they also tend to be a better barometer than the official analyst figures. That Apple beat even its whisper number is well worth noting.

Apple, by the way, has predicted profits of $1.18 to $1.23 a share for the next quarter, which would be down significantly from this quarter. We'll keep you posted.

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