Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Dow 10K

With the markets closed yesterday, this might be a good time to take a longer look at where it's been in recent years. As I write this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 10,999, although it dipped as low as 9,998 during the day on Friday. In fact, every single day last week saw the Dow traverse the magical 10,000 mark at some point.

Last Monday, as it happens, marked the 50th time in the history of the Dow that it had crossed the 10,000 line. The first time was back on March 29, 1999, and at that point a lot of people would have told you that it was more likely to hit 20,000 than it was to cross 10,000 on the way back down again. But after the dot-com collapse, the Dow was back under 10,000 in February 2000.

It's tempting to see 10,000 as a kind of barrier for the Dow, that it's inexorably drawn to that level or that there's a type of investing psychology that gives 10,000 some kind of significance for investors. That's bunk, of course. People buy and sell Merck and AT&T and Coca-Cola based on how much they think each individual stock is worth, not on how it affects the Dow Jones average. It does make for interesting trivia, though.

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