Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Dow 13,000! ... or Not

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 13,000 barrier yesterday, leading to an outburst of cheers on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The Dow hadn't closed above 13,000 since May 19, 2008, nearly four years ago. (And it still hasn't, since it finished yesterday by slipping back down to 12,965.)

In other words, over that period of time, the stock market has gone precisely nowhere. And that 13,000 barrier is not even particularly close to the index's peak. The Dow reached its highest-ever point on October 9, 2007, when it closed at 14,164. We're still a good way from reaching that barrier.

But there's another important barrier that we are approaching. The Dow reached bottom on March 9, 2009, when it closed at 6547. It needs to reach 13,094 to have returned 100 percent since that ignominious point. We could arrive at that milestone sometime this week.

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