Friday, April 27, 2012

Inside the GDP Number

Like the latest unemployment figure, the GDP growth figure released by the Department of Commerce this morning was a mild disappointment - not terrible, but not strong enough to inspire a lot of confidence, either. The first estimate for growth in the first quarter of 2012 was 2.2 percent, a step down from the 3.0 percent we had in the fourth quarter of 2011 and a bit less than the 2.5 percent that seemed to be the consensus of the economists.

The bright spots for the economy included exports, which rose 5.4 percent for the quarter, exactly double their increase in the fourth quarter of '11. Motor vehicle output added 1.12 percent to the total GDP. Durable goods continued to be a strong category, rising 15.3 percent this quarter, after an increase of 16.1 percent the previous quarter.

But nonresidential real estate - office and retail building, mostly - continued to be a real drain. Nonresidential structures dropped by 12.0 percent on the quarter. And the federal government continued its trend of spending less: federal consumption and investment expenditures dropped 5.6 percent, after falling 6.9 percent the previous quarter.

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