Are we in for a surprising amount of economic growth for the first quarter of 2013? At the outset of the quarter, many economists forecast very slow GDP growth, as we were in the middle of the Fiscal Cliff battle and the recovery seemed to be slowing.
But lately economists have been revising those estimates upward. Morgan Stanley has changed its estimate of first quarter GDP from the 0.8 percent they predicted in December to 3 percent now. JP Morgan has raised its earlier forecast of 1 percent growth up to 3.3 percent. The consensus, according to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg, is for 3 percent growth, up from a 1.6 percent consensus in December.
The Commerce Department releases its first estimate of first quarter GDP next Friday, April 26. At that point, we will have a better sense of whether all this optimism is justified.
No comments:
Post a Comment