There's been a lot of talk lately about the four-year-plus bull market in the American stock market, which is still rolling along. But another bull market may be drawing to a close, the one in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. The bull market for the so-called long bond has been going on for more than 13 years, but it may not have much further to go.
A bear market is technically defined as a 20 percent decline in an index's value. The value of the 30-year bond peaked on July 24 of last year, but it has now declined by nearly 15 percent in the year-plus since that date. If it loses another 6.14% in value, the Treasury will enter bear market territory.
Even if it does, though, this will have been a remarkable run for the long bond. Since the bull market began in 2000, the value of the bond has risen 71 percent in value. The 13 years is by far the longest bull run for the 30-year Treasury in the past 40 years.
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