Tuesday, December 24, 2013

The Right Kind of Revisions

There was some good news about the economy released last week, when the Commerce Department's final revision for third-quarter GDP was revised upward to 4.1 percent. That was up from an initial reading of 2.8 percent, and marks the strongest growth for the economy in two years.

Just as important was the nature of the revisions. Economists don't get excited about business spending that goes toward simply replenishing inventories, since that doesn't reflect economic growth. And the revised numbers showed very little change in inventory spending.

What the revisions did show was that consumer spending was higher than first reported, going from an increase of 1.4 percent to 2.0 percent. Exports were also revised upward, from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent. That's the kind of growth that economists like to see.

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