Monday, January 27, 2014

Credit Outlook Better Than It Seems

The big ratings agency Standard & Poor's makes news when it downgrades a nation's debt - like last Friday, when it lowered Croatia's creditworthiness down to the BB level, below investment grade. France, which is already below the top-level AAA rating given to countries like the U.S., is now fearing a further downgrade from S&P.

All told, S&P downgraded 568 entities last year, while upgrading just 488. That may sound like S&P is negative on the world economy, but the trend is actually improving. Although downgrades made up the majority of S&P's credit decisions last year, the 54 percent was the lowest that figure has been in four years. Since 1987, downgrades have historically made up 62 percent of S&P's decisions.

And the agency is not expecting any great upheavals in the credit market. Over the next six months to two years, its outlook for 79 percent of the issuers it rates remains stable.

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