Friday, September 30, 2016

Soybean Power

What has economists excited about the third quarter GDP figure? The humble soybean. Soybean exports are expected to add about 1 percent to third-quarter GDP growth, due to bumper harvests at home, crop shortfalls in South America and solid demand.

That has many institutions raising expectations for the quarter. J.P. Morgan Chase has revised its outlook to 3 percent annualized growth in the third quarter, up from its earlier estimate of 2 percent. Barclays inched up to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent.

Any of those figures would be a big improvement from 1.4 percent GDP growth in the second quarter and 0.8 percent in the first. The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of third quarter GDP on October 28. 

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