You might think there are rumblings in the economy before a recession hits - but in the maternity ward? A new study into fertility and birth rates found that people in the U.S. cut down on baby-making decisions well in advance of recessions — almost as though anticipating them.
The study, from the National Bureau of Economic Research, found that over the past 30 years, conceptions fell at the same time or even before other indicators whenever a recession was about to start. For example, conceptions peaked in 1998 and 2006, well in advance of recessions, and the large decline in conceptions came before the large increase in unemployment. In fact, conceptions worked as well as other economic leading indicators, such as consumer confidence or durables-goods purchases.
And now? U.S. fertility rates have reached a record low, at 62.0 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, according to the most recent government figures reported by the Pew Research Center last month.
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