What does the upcoming election season mean for the stock market? A quick look at historical performance shows that stocks often see rough sledding in the September of years that feature midterm elections. But stocks tend to do just fine as Election Day nears as well as in the aftermath of the vote, regardless of the outcome.
Analysts at UBS note that the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 14.5 percent from the end of August to the end of March around midterm elections. That includes a rocky start, marked by a median decline of 1.4 percent from the end of August through early October, followed by a rally into the next year.
This rally in equities around midterm elections has actually been much stronger than the average returns seen in all other years. Taking a more short-term approach, Deutsche Bank has noted that the three-month period running from a month ahead to two months after the election has produced a median 8 percent gain.