Federal Reserve officials were more worried about the U.S. economy by the time they met in mid-September, according to minutes of the central bank’s meeting that were released yesterday. They even noted that the probability of a recession had increased "notably" in recent months.
“Participants generally judged that downside risks to the outlook for economic activity had increased somewhat since their July meeting,” the minutes said. "Particularly those stemming from trade policy uncertainty and conditions abroad.”
The Fed did not alter its official forecast that the economy would grow at a rate slightly above 2 percent this year. It also predicted that GDP would run slightly below 2 percent in both 2021 and 2022.