Third Quarter GDP Bumps Up

Some strong economic news: Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the Commerce Department’s second reading for the third quarter, released yesterday. That's up from an initial estimate of 2.9 percent, and is the strongest pace since the second quarter of 2014.

Consumer spending rose 2.8 percent in the quarter, higher than the original estimate of 2.1 percent and the strongest rate since 2002. The consumer sector accounts for two-thirds of the economy, and has been a strong factor in economic growth for several quarters.

Also helping out: Corporate profits soared 6.6 percent in the third quarter, following on the heels of a 0.6 percent decline in the second quarter. After-tax profits rose 7.6 percent from the second quarter.

Who's Giving to Charity?

Here's a fascinating trend in charitable giving: Wealthy Americans are giving more to charity than ever before, while donations from low- and middle-income givers are falling. A new study from the Program on Inequality and the Public Good said data is pointing to a small group of wealthy donors giving more money and cutting bigger checks than ever before.  But less-wealthy donors are giving less.

The Giving USA Foundation annual report found a 4 percent increase, to $373.25 billion, in 2015 in charitable donations from the year-earlier period, a record high. At the same time, the makeup for charitable donors has shifted.

The Institute for Policy Studies, using Internal Revenue Service data to track charitable deductions, found that inflation-adjusted itemized contributions from people making over $10 million increased by a whopping 104 percent from 2003 to 2013. Over the same period, itemized charitable deductions from people making less than $100,000 went down 34 percent.

A Quieter Black Friday

Is Black Friday losing its relevance? Foot traffic in stores this year is expected to fall by about 3.5 percent on Black Friday compared to last year, according to data from the location tracking service Foursquare. Last year, about 102 million shoppers hit stores over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, down from 147 million in 2012, according to the National Retail Federation.

That doesn't mean people aren't shopping during the holidays anymore. They just aren't saving their purchases for Black Friday, and many are choosing to shop online, rather than in stores. And they're shopping and spending more than ever.

Combining foot traffic in stores and shopping online, about 137.4 million people are expected to shop over the Thanksgiving weekend. That's up from 135.8 million who shopped over the long weekend last year. Overall spending during the holiday period is expected to increase 3.6 percent over last year, to $655.8 billion.

Thoughts for Thanksgiving

"We can only be said to be alive in those moments when our hearts are conscious of our treasures." ~Thornton Wilder

"Give thanks for unknown blessings already on their way." ~ Native American Saying

"Stand up, on this Thanksgiving Day, stand upon your feet. Believe in man. Soberly and with clear eyes, believe in your own time and place. There is not, and there never has been a better time, or a better place to live in." ~ Phillips Brooks

Dow 19K

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 19000 for the first time. But it took almost 500 trading days to get there from 18000, the seventh-longest stretch of time between such round-number marks. The 16000, 17000 and 18000 Dow records were all broken in fewer than 160 trading sessions since the previous 1,000-point level.

Simple math shows that each 1,000-point rise is less impressive than the last: The march from 17000 to 18000 was good for a 5.9 percent gain, for example, while the climb from 10000 to 11000 was a 10 percent rise. The Dow made it to 19000 by rising just 5.6 percent over nearly two years, since after it reached 18000 in December 2014.

Put the two measures together, and the latest 1,000-point climb was the result of average gains of just 0.01 percent each trading day. The last three round-number records were set after average moves of more than 0.04 percent each day.

A Slightly Cheaper Feast

Americans' Thanksgiving feast this year will be less costly than last year's. A Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people will cost an average of $49.87 this year, according to a survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation. That is down 24 cents from a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner fell to its lowest since 2010, the Farm Bureau said.

The Farm Bureau, which surveyed 148 volunteer shoppers across 40 states, followed prices for a range of typical Thanksgiving items including sweet potatoes, bread stuffing and cranberries. A 16-pound turkey cost roughly $22.74 this year, down 1.3 percent from a year ago. Prices of milk, pumpkin pie, and a veggie tray of celery and carrots also fell.

Food-price deflation has financially crimped farmers and ranchers, but has benefited consumers this year. In last week’s report on consumer prices, the Labor Department found food costs at supermarkets fell 2.3 percent in October, the sixth straight monthly decline and the biggest drop since 2009.

Choppy Waters Ahead?

The VIX, the stock market's so-called Fear Index, looks tame for now, indicating that there shouldn't be a whole lot of short-term movement in the market. But are there more turbulent times further into the future?

The CBOE Volatility Index closed below 13 on Friday for the first time in more than a month, but futures contracts tell a different story. The VIX future that expires next month was at 14.95 Friday, while the one expiring in June was at 19.35.

That rising level reflects expectations that volatility will rise, despite low current levels. The differential between one-month and six-month VIX futures is approaching its largest in the past two years, after an initial increase following the U.S. presidential elections last week.