The biggest economic news yesterday was the release of the Fed's minutes from its January meeting, where it upgraded its basic outlook for the recovery over the rest of this year. These are the basic differences between the latest assessments and the Fed's earlier forecasts:
* The Fed now sees overall growth of GDP in 2011 at somewhere between 3.4 and 3.9 percent, up from the earlier estimate of 3 to 3.6 percent. That would be up from a 2.9 percent increase in GDP in 2010.
* The forecast for inflation moved slightly upward, to a range between 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent. The previous forecast had been 1.1 percent to 1.7 percent, so there is very little difference between the two.
* The jobless rate is now projected to be between 8.8 percent and 9 percent by the end of the year. Again, this is only a minor change from the previous estimate of 8.9 percent to 9.1 percent. And note that since unemployment is now at 9.0 percent, the Fed apparently thinks there will be little movement on the jobs front for the rest of the year.
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