So we learned this morning that retail sales were up in October, the last month before Black Friday and the kickoff of the holiday shopping season. One more positive note from today's report: The Commerce Department said that inventories at U.S. businesses fell to their lowest level in almost four years in September, signaling that orders might rise as spending picks up.
Here are some of the holiday forecasts that are out there:
* The National Retail Federation predicts a decline in holiday sales of 1.0 percent from last year.
* A survey of chief marketing officers at leading U.S. retailers, taken by BDO Seidman, expects sales on Black Friday and on "Cyber Monday" - the first Monday after Thanksgiving - to be up 1.8 percent.
* Americans expect to spend $638 on holiday gifts, same as last year's holiday season, according to a Gallup poll.
* Wal-Mart expects U.S. sales for the quarter ending in January to be flat to plus-or-minus 1 percent. A year ago, the same sales rose 2.4 percent.
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