Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The Fed Gets Frustrated

The minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting earlier this month were released yesterday, and their disappointment with the direction of the economy was notable. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke called the pace of economic growth "frustratingly slow," and the Fed accordingly ratcheted down its forecasts for the coming year. It now sees GDP growing at 1.7 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year - and remember, it was making these predictions before the new came out that the official GDP rate for the third quarter was revised down from 2.5 percent to 2.0 percent.

The Fed also sees unemployment settling at 8.6 percent by the end of 2012. That means it expects little change over the next year, since the official rate is currently 9.0 percent.

There wasn't any action taken after the meeting, but the overall sense of pessimism makes it more likely that the Fed will take future steps, perhaps a third bout of quantitative easing. The Fed next meets on December 13, and we'll keep an eye on that date.

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