Thursday, November 3, 2011

Long-Term, Bonds Inch Ahead of Stocks

After a lost decade in the stock markets (you can read more about it here), we have reached a most unlikely anomaly in long-term investing: As of the end of October, over the past 30 years, returns on long-term Treasury bonds have outpaced returns from equities. How unlikely is that? We hadn't seen such a 30-year period since before the Civil War, with a stretch that ended in 1861.

In the most recent 30-year period, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.8 percent on an annual basis. But long-term government bonds have gained an average of 11.5 percent over the same period, according to a study conducted by Bianco Research in Chicago.

Those same trends have remained strongly in force this year, although at a lower level. Bond investments have returned 6.25 percent this year through the end of October, while the S&P 500 is up 2.18 percent.

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