Monday, July 6, 2015

Optimism for July

Summer is widely considered the doldrums for the stock market, but July, for some reason, is often an exception to that. Since 1985, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of 0.8 percent in July. By contrast, it has fallen by 0.1 percent in June, by 0.4 percent in August, and 0.7 percent in September.

One theory for July's relative success is that there's usually an earnings-report season that happens during it. Alcoa, the traditional opener of earnings season, announces on Wednesday of this week, followed by Pepsi and Walgreens on Thursday.

In addition to being the historically worst-performing time for the market, summer is also the time of the market's lowest volume. The reasoning behind the stronger July is that having a little bit of news going on draws interest when traders might otherwise be on summer vacation - coming back to trade off good earnings news. We'll see if that's the case this July.

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