A Slight Slowdown in Consumer Expectations

A monthly survey conducted on consumer expectations showed a notable pessimistic trend in July. The New York Fed’s survey — based on a panel of 1,300 household heads across the United States — found declines in one-year expectations on earnings growth , household spending, stock prices and house prices. Some highlights:

• Median one-year-ahead wage-growth expectations fell from 2.7 percent in June to 2.4 percent in July, dropping below the 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent range it had been in since November 2017
• Median home price change expectations dropped from a recent high of 3.9 percent reached in June to 3.7 percent 
• The probability that stock prices will be higher in a year fell to 40.3 percent, the lowest level since October 2016
• Median household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percent to 3.2 percent in July